Source: FoxCFB
What a 12-team playoff would look like this year.

By Will Cornelius

The Surveyor

After another crazy season of college football, it is time for bowl season and the College Football Playoffs (CFP). Michigan (13-0, Big Ten Champions), Washington (13-0, Pac-12 Champions), Texas (12-1, Big 12 Champions) and Alabama (12-1, Southeastern Conference Champions) were selected for the four-team CFP that will decide a national championship.

This college football season will be the last one to use a four-team playoff bracket. And not a moment too soon! Undefeated Florida State and one-loss two-time defending national champions Georgia were both denied a spot in the CFP this year despite impressive resumes.

Since time immemorial, choosing the best college football team in the country has courted controversy with this year being one of the most egregious. Florida State will become the first-ever undefeated Power 5 conference champion to be excluded from the CFP. Back-to-back defending national champions Georgia was also denied a spot after a three-point loss in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game to Alabama, their only loss of the season.

Fortunately, this will become a problem of the past as the top division of college football will move to a 12-team playoff format next year.
It is fair for a team ranked fifth or sixth, like Florida State and Georgia, to argue that they deserve a spot in a four-team bracket. It will be harder for the No. 13 team to argue they deserve a shot at the national championship. The No. 13 team in the CFP rankings this year is 9-3 LSU, whose three losses all came against teams that would make the 12-team playoff.

There is some fear that a 12-team CFP will dilute the importance of the regular season. But tell that to Florida State who won all 13 games they played this year. “What is the point of playing games?” Seminoles coach Mike Norvell said in a statement released after his team was denied a spot in the CFP this year. A 12-team playoff format would also have seen undefeated Liberty grab the final No. 12 seed in the tournament, ensuring that no undefeated team was denied an opportunity to compete for the national championship.

The supposed ‘sanctity’ of the regular season is a farce. For the past decade, Alabama has scheduled a home game every season against a hapless opponent from the lower football championship subdivision. Each year the Crimson Tide annihilates either Chattanooga, Mercer or Western Carolina to pad their record with another win. Playing against an equal, like Texas in Tuscaloosa in early September this year, saw Alabama lose by 10 points.

Powerhouse teams also have the advantage of tailoring their schedule to ensure wins. All four CFP teams this year played only five away games while hosting seven home games. Georgia played eight home games this season and all four of their away games were within driving distance. The farthest they had to travel was only 300 miles to Vanderbilt in Tennessee. That is shorter than the trip Berthoud High School’s football team made to Delta High School in November 2022 for the state playoffs.

If the 12-team playoff format were adopted for this season, it would have put to bed all the questions about who deserves to be there and instead, let it be decided on the field. Even better, it would provide more quality matchups that fans want to see.

Top teams have rarely played each other in the history of college football unless they are established rivals. Conferences and short seasons play a part in this, but teams have avoided tough matchups for fear of losing.

Florida State has never played Texas or Washington. Oklahoma has only played Michigan once when Gerald Ford was president. Sure, Clemson had played Florida 13 times, but none since 1961. USC and LSU have only played each other twice, in the 80s and 70s. Similarly, Stanford and Alabama have played each other twice, but not since FDR signed the Social Security Act in 1935. Situated just 260 miles apart, Purdue and Kentucky have only played each other once before—back when there was an Ottoman Empire and a Russian Tsar in 1915!

A 12-team playoff will fix this imbalance by forcing the top teams to play each other.

Next year’s college football bowl season will be a different beast, but for now, we get one more year of how it has always been. Below are 11 of the best bowl games on offer during the holiday season not to miss. All kickoff times are Mountain Standard Time.
Thursday, Dec. 28

Pop-Tarts Bowl – No. 18 NC State vs. No. 25 Kansas State (3:45 p.m. kickoff)
Bowl games have a long history of irreverent title sponsors and this year is no different. Formerly the Cheez-It Bowl, America’s favorite ‘breakfast’ will now host the Pop-Tarts Bowl. But do not fear, Cheez-Its have not been forgotten, they now sponsor the Citrus Bowl.

Kellanova, formerly known as the Kellogg Company, owns both the snack food brands and is going all out this bowl season with special menu items at its sponsored bowl games, including Pop-Tart ice cream sundaes, Pop-Tart popcorn and Cheez-It bloody marys!

It will be the first time the two schools have ever played each other on the football field. This underrated matchup features two top programs that never get the national recognition they deserve.

With a win, NC State would record its second 10-win season ever. A Kansas State victory would solidify the Wildcats as one of the top programs in the

Big 12 next year. Kansas State is a 2-point favorite in the game.

Alamo Bowl – No. 14 Arizona vs. No. 12 Oklahoma (7:15 p.m. kickoff)

What could have been a regular Big 12 rivalry is now a one-off matchup. Next year, Oklahoma will leave the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference.

Meanwhile, Arizona will abandon the Pac-12 for the Big 12.

Perennial powerhouse Oklahoma finished the season 10-2, great for most programs, but not the fans in Norman, Okla. The Sooners’ signature win came against Texas, but back-to-back losses against Kansas and rivals Oklahoma State ended their national championship hopes.
Underrated Arizona enters the game 9-3 and is on a six-game win streak. It is the first meeting of the two schools since a pair of games in the late 80s. Vegas has Arizona as a 3-point favorite.

Friday, Dec. 29

Sun Bowl – No. 19 Oregon State vs. No. 16 Notre Dame (12 p.m. kickoff)

Is the third time the charm for the Fighting Irish? The teams have only met twice before, both in bowl games in the early 2000s that Oregon State won. But the Beavers lost key members of the team after their regular season.

Former Oregon State coach Johnathan Smith resigned at the end of the season to take the head coaching job at Michigan State. Smith played quarterback for the Beavers two decades ago and led the team to a surprising 41-9 victory over Notre Dame in the 2001 Fiesta Bowl.

In addition to their former quarterback, Oregon State also lost its top two passers this season. Former Clemson transfer D.J. Uiagalelei and true freshman phenom Aiden Chiles both entered the transfer portal and will not play in the Sun Bowl. Accordingly, the bettors have Notre Dame as a 6-point favorite.

Cotton Bowl – No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 7 Ohio State (6 p.m. kickoff)
The Cotton Bowl features a matchup of Midwest teams that is the first preview of what a 12-team CFP playoff will look like next year.
After going undefeated over their first 11 games, the Buckeyes lost to Michigan in their final regular season game. Despite finishing 11-1, Ohio State missed the Big Ten Championship game and a spot in the CFP. Like Florida State and Georgia, Buckeye fans felt they deserved a shot at the national championship.

Missouri was also in the hunt for a spot in the CFP mid-season before losses to LSU and Georgia put it out of reach.

Ohio State will be without its starting quarterback, Kyle McCord after he announced he would be transferring to Syracuse next season. Thankfully, the Buckeyes can still count on their All-American wide receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr. who is expected to be a top-three pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
It is an even matchup, with Vegas making Missouri a 3-point favorite.

Saturday, Dec. 30

Peach Bowl – No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Penn State (10 a.m. kickoff)

Another first-time matchup between a pair of two-loss teams with impressive records this season.

Ole Miss’s losses came against Alabama and Georgia on the road. The Crimson Tide bested the Rebels by two touchdowns while Georgia crushed them 52-17.

Similarly, Penn State’s only losses also came against top-quality opponents Ohio State and Michigan, albeit by much closer margins. The Nittany Lions also shut out Iowa 31-0 which has one of the best defenses in the nation.

Both teams must be looking forward to next year’s expanded CFP. Neither Ole Miss nor Penn State have ever been selected for the four-team CFP but have combined for nine appearances in the most prestigious bowl games, known as the New Year’s Six, over the past decade.

Penn State is a 4.5-point favorite in the game.

Orange Bowl – No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 5 Florida State (2 p.m. kickoff)

While Georgia and Florida State were denied the chance to play in the CFP, they will get the opportunity to face each other in what could decide the second-best team in the nation.

Florida State appeared to be a shoo-in for the CFP until their star quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a gruesome ankle injury to end his season in late November. The Seminoles switched to backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker, who has served as Travis’ understudy for the past four years, for their final regular season game against in-state rival Florida. Facing a 12-point deficit in the second quarter, Florida State came back against their rivals to win 24-15.

But disaster struck again as Rodemaker was sidelined for the ACC Championship Game against No. 14 Louisville. True freshman Brock Glenn was then called into action and helped the Seminoles win their 13th game in a grinding 16-6 win over Louisville. Despite delivering two gritty wins with backup players at the most important position to remain undefeated, the CFP committee decided Florida State was not one of the best four teams in the nation.

To add insult to injury, bettors are selling Florida State’s chances in the Orange Bowl for pennies on the dollar. Vegas opened the point spread by making Georgia 14-point favorites! Then on Christmas day, Rodemaker announced he would be entering the transfer portal and would not play against Georgia.

Georgia must also feel disappointed to not make the CFP cut. Over the past 30 games, the Bulldogs have gone 29-1, with that only loss coming earlier this month to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game by three points.

Regardless of whether either team deserved a chance at the national championship, this is a marquee matchup between two powerhouse programs that consistently produce NFL talent. It is also the first meeting between the two schools since 2003.

Florida State is a 19-point underdog, but do not count out a team that has done nothing but win while being trashed by national sports reporters and pundits.

Monday, Jan. 1

ReliaQuest Bowl – Wisconsin vs. No. 13 LSU (10 a.m. kickoff)

The new year starts with last year’s Heisman Trophy winner, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, taking on Wisconsin. After posting middling numbers at Arizona State and LSU over the past four years, Daniels broke out this season with 3,812 yards passing and 1,134 yards rushing, while adding a combined 50 touchdowns.

Wisconsin enters the game with a stout defense that will look to halt LSU’s high-flying offense. LSU’s offense averaged 46.4 points per game this season, while the Wisconsin defense is allowing only 18.9 points per game this season. Something has to break.

Bettors favor LSU by 10 points and are expecting a high-scoring game with the over-under set at 55.

Fiesta Bowl – No. 23 Liberty vs. No. 8 Oregon (11 a.m. kickoff)

Oregon will take on undefeated Liberty in another bowl game that will preview what a 12-team playoff will look like next year. It is the first time the two schools have played each other.

Oregon missed the CFP after losing to Washington once in the regular season and once in the final Pac-12 Championship game. But both those losses came by only three points while Oregon dismantled every other ranked team it played this season.

Liberty enters the game undefeated at 13-0 after beating every opponent in the Conference USA. But their strength of schedule and quality of opponents saw them looked over in the CFP. Not next year though, under the current agreement for the 12-team CFP, Liberty would have grabbed the final spot in the bracket as the best conference champion outside of the Power 5.

Still, Vegas is showing no love for Liberty and has the Ducks as 17-point favorites. High-scoring is all but guaranteed with the over-under set at 67.5!
Citrus Bowl – No. 17 Iowa vs. No. 21 Tennessee (11 a.m. kickoff)

Unable to overcome the stars of their respective conferences, Iowa and Tennessee will face each other in a contrast of styles.

Strong defensive play from Iowa all season has seen them only give up an average of 13.2 points per game. Unfortunately, their offense is only averaging 16.6 points per game. Low-scoring games were a theme for the Hawkeyes this year as they set the record for the lowest known over-under in a game with 25.5 in a November matchup with Nebraska. The under won that game as Iowa kicked a last-second field goal with its backup kicker to grab a 13-10 victory.

Iowa’s punter, Tory Taylor, a 26-year-old Australian has become the star of the team, being named an All-American and winning the 2023 Ray Guy award, given to the best punter across college football.

A pre-season favorite, Tennessee fell victim to the fiercely competitive Southeastern Conference with losses to Florida, Alabama, Missouri and Georgia. Playing in his sixth and final year, Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton will have one final chance to showcase his talents to NFL scouts against a tough defense.

Tennessee is a 6.5-point favorite, but a low-scoring game could favor Iowa.

Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal) – No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan (3 p.m. kickoff)

After being benched early in the season, Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has been an unstoppable force for the Crimson Tide, finishing the season with 35 total touchdowns. Entering the CFP, he is arguably playing better than any other quarterback in the nation with both his feet and his arm.
Alabama has found itself ranked behind Georgia for the past few years in the SEC, but that does not tell the whole story. In the last nine meetings between the two schools, the Crimson Tide have won eight games, with their only loss coming in the 2022 National Championship to the Bulldogs.

But unlike the Crimson Tide, Michigan enters the game undefeated at 13-0. After losing in the semifinals of the CFP the past two years, the Wolverines will hope the third time is the charm. With a balanced offense that can run or pass its way into the endzone, the challenge will be outplaying Alabama’s NFL-caliber defense.

After a season of controversy and persistent NFL rumors, this could be the final game for Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh. Expect a close game as bettors have Michigan as a narrow 1.5-point favorite.

Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal) – No. 3 Texas vs. No. 2 Washington (6:45 p.m. kickoff)

Texas and Washington will face off in the other CFP semi-final, a rematch of last year’s Alamo Bowl that Washington won 27-20.

Washington has flown under the radar this year, despite remaining undefeated. Senior Husky quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., led the nation with 4,218 yards passing this season and received the second most votes for the Heisman Trophy.

Texas is led by sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers, who is seen as the top passer in the 2025 draft class. The Longhorns started their season with a 34-24 statement win against Alabama in Tuscaloosa in the second game of the year. Their only blemish was a 34-30 loss to No. 12 Oklahoma.

Bettors are giving Texas the edge as a 4.5-point favorite.

The winners of the two CFP semifinals will meet in the CFP national championship game, held on Jan. 8 at NRG Stadium in Houston with a 5:30 p.m. kickoff.