Will Cornelius

Donald Trump has done many things no other president has ever done before. Add racking up 91 state and federal indictments to the list.

Trump was indicted Monday for 13 charges related to alleged efforts to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results, along with 18 other people associated with the former president. This is his fourth series of indictments since spring hit North America this year.

A mix of court dates, caucuses and primaries on the 2024 presidential calendar will have Trump campaigning and allegedly conspiring on all fronts. CNN and Fox News are no doubt thrilled about the wall-to-wall coverage Trump ‘requires.’

It is possible that Trump is unfit to be president, past, present and future—as well as innocent. It is also possible that these four indictments take inconceivable turns in the future where the long-fabled ‘smoking gun’ is revealed to vanquish Trump. Here is where the four cases stand.

In Manhattan, Trump is charged with paying hush money to three sources, most salaciously an adult film star, but wait, the real crime is not declaring it as an election expense. This case appears the weakest of the four against him. So far there is no evidence connecting the hush money payments to the election outside of circumstantial timing. If someone is seeking to extort you, they would likely do it at the most opportune time. For a famous New York real estate mogul running to become president, right before the actual election date seems like the best instance. It is a great reason to not vote for someone or divorce them, but far from criminal.
On his home turf in South Florida is the most serious of the cases against the former president. At his coastal castle fortress, the Château de Mar-a-Lago, Trump appears to have kept dozens of boxes of allegedly confidential documents from his time as president. What is unclear to people who do not see or handle confidential documents—and to be clear that is basically everyone—is if this is illegal or not.

In the classified documents case, Trump is charged under the Espionage Act of 1917. The law has an infamous history and was used to target socialists and communists in the past. This new legal frontier is opaque at best, how many previous presidents can you name where this has happened? None, but there was a former Secretary of State who allegedly deleted emails from a private server that—maybe did or maybe did not—have confidential documents. But who knows?

What may ultimately seal Trump’s fate in this case is, wait for it, himself! In a superseding indictment on July 27, it was alleged that Trump sought to destroy video footage connected to the confidential documents. It was not the crime that got former president Richard Nixon, it was the coverup!

The other two cases center on Trump’s actions after the 2020 presidential elections, one at the federal level and one at the state level in Fulton County, Georgia. Trump said he won but the Electoral College and his vice president said otherwise. It was a messy she-said he-said where no one won. But what crime did Trump commit in believing that he won the election and pursuing every spurious legal means, unsuccessfully, to ensure the process was fair?

In 2000, then-candidates George Bush and Al Gore ended up in the Supreme Court over the results of the presidential election in Florida. Both had valid claims and whoever won Florida, won the presidency. Bush’s team claimed that he had won the state and that a recount was unfair and could not be consistently—and thus legally—applied. Gore’s side believed that he had won the state as recounts in specific counties were showing disparities favoring Gore. In the end, the high court ruled in Bush’s favor and he became president. Gore was never alleged to have conspired in attempts to overturn the 2000 election despite his eventual loss and possible unconstitutional arguments to recount certain votes over others.

Residents of Colorado should retain legal counsel in case charges are ever brought against them for attempting to subvert presidential elections. In November 2020, Colorado voters approved a referendum to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. The Compact is an attempt by several states to tie their state’s electoral votes for president to the overall popular vote winner across the nation instead of the winner of their state. For the Compact to take effect there must be enough states in it to meet the majority of 270 electoral college votes, it currently has 205. Are residents of Colorado trying to subvert presidential elections?

The U.S. Constitution is inherently a document guaranteeing political rights, it makes little to no distinction on morality. Trump had, has and will always have a right to contest election results. It is in the first amendment. And no, not the part about free speech. The last clause of the amendment guarantees the right “to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.” Grievances are many and varied but a right to petition the government regarding them is a protected right, no matter how irrational it may appear.

Right now, the biggest obstacle Trump faces is juries in three unfavorable locations, Washington D.C., Manhattan and Atlanta. Despite formerly living in the first two locations, most people hold overwhelmingly negative opinions of him in those spots. Do people who know him and see him daily tend not to like him?
His armada of lawyers will likely try to move the trials to nearby areas with greater Trump support, like Virginia, Staten Island or the suburbs of Atlanta. But picking an unbiased jury pool for the former president anywhere in the country will be difficult, blue state or red state. In the event of a jury conviction, Trump will fight this in the appellant courts and then the Supreme Court.

Another unknown is if there are any witnesses or evidence that have yet to be revealed. This is an advantage the prosecutors across the four cases hold. The two state prosecutors in Manhattan and Atlanta are Alvin Bragg and Fani Willis, both of whom are elected public officials. It is natural to assume in their roles they keep an eye on the political climate and their chances at the next election.

Thinking about the presidential election and Trump’s legal battles in 2024 is akin to staring at the sun for too long. It is hard to fathom the insanity of Trump winning a Republican primary in one state at 9 p.m. before hopping onto his private plane overnight to fly into Atlanta for a morning court appearance followed by an evening rally out of town, then on to Manhattan the next day for a morning show phone-in argument on CNN, business meetings at Trump Tower and then another court appearance. That is new extra tangy Trump craziness, added on top of regular old-fashioned Trump madness, with more sides of Rudy Giuliani absurdity on the way. Cherish 2023 while it lasts!