Opinion

By Will Cornilius

The Surveyor

Iowans endured frigid temperatures on Monday night to caucus for former President Donald Trump, with a majority of voters endorsing him as the 2024 Republican presidential nominee. The final tally saw Trump win 51% of the vote, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in second with 21% support and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in third place at 19%.

Trump’s win in Iowa is the first sign of what is an uncomfortable truth for many. That the divisive and chaotic former President is the run-away favorite to win the Republican nomination for president in the 2024 election.

Unfortunately, immediately after the Iowa Caucus was held a new strain of Trump Derangement Syndrome was detected at the offices of MSNBC. Joe Scarborough claimed the following morning that the results showed that 50% of Republicans in Iowa voted against Trump and thus this was bad news for the former president’s chances. The strain quickly spread with Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker also succumbing to the psychosis with similar claims of the weakness of an electoral majority.

It’s hard to make an argument that gaining the majority of votes in an election is a poor showing, especially when there were three other prominent candidates in the race too. Sure, turnout was low in Iowa, but so was the temperature and it is important to note that turnout in caucuses or primaries is never particularly high. Caucuses also attract only the most dedicated supporters, with results indicating where enthusiasm for candidates is.

But alas, the media narrative remains unchanged from 2016, when large swaths of the country buried their collective hive mind heads in the sand and proclaimed there was no possible way for Trump to become President. We all know how that ended.

The GOP nomination for President is Trump’s for the taking and no one stands in his way—except maybe for the man himself. Prediction markets give Trump an 86% chance of winning the Republican nomination currently. DeSantis and Haley are locked in a loser-takes-all battle in the nomination process for second place where the reward is eventual acquiescence to Trump.

Major news outlets will go into overdrive over the next week to hype up Nikki Haley’s chances in New Hampshire. It is certainly possible that Haley will pull off an upset win in the ‘Live Free or Die’ state, but to challenge Trump for the nomination she will need to overtake him consistently in primaries and caucuses going forward. March 5 is Super Tuesday, when over a third of GOP delegates will be up for grabs and Trump is leading in every one of those states with polling data.

At the moment, DeSantis and Haley both seem determined to stay in the race despite rapidly diminishing chances of winning and to the detriment of each other.

If you do not want Trump to win the Republican presidential nomination or the 2024 presidential race, yesteryear was the time to hit the panic button.
After three years in office, President Joe Biden has the lowest approval ratings since modern polling began during the Truman administration. Lower than Trump, George Bush Sr. or Jimmy Carter—incumbent presidents who all lost re-election.